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Guapo
05-11-2009, 12:40 PM
It wasn’t so long ago when a penny stock company announced they would buy-back their own shares from the open market, it would frequently send their stock soaring. Stock buy-backs were in vogue among investors then, much like reverse mergers are today.

The purpose of a buy-back is to reduce the float. Investors like them because if a company does indeed buy-back a substantial percentage of its stock, it will increase the PPS. An actual stock buy-back would result in wind-fall profits for investors. Stock buy-backs however have usually left stockholders sadly disappointed.

The truth is, penny stock companies rarely do substantial stock buy-backs. They may declare or imply such, but they seldom buy-back a sufficient amount of stock to affect the PPS. There are several reasons why they don’t:

1. Insufficient cash
2. Few if any benefits
3. Buy-back announcements increase the buy-back price
4. A better method of reducing the float


1. Insufficient cash

The primary headache of almost all penny companies is a lack of cash. They simply do not have the money to do substantial buy-backs. Even successful companies often have narrow profit margins and can’t afford to spend money on projects not directed toward generating additional income.

Many penny companies have little or no income from what we would consider normal business activities. They manage to keep their doors open by selling stock. It’s business suicide for a legitimate company surviving from the sale of its stock to suddenly reverse course and begin buying it back from the open market.

Fly-by-night companies whose sole purpose is selling stock never do them of course.

Penny companies often dilute their floats to hundreds of millions or several billion shares, sometimes even more. A buy-back that would substantially reduce a float that large would cost tens of thousands of dollars, hundreds of thousands or perhaps even a million or two, depending on how large the float is. Very few penny companies, even the profitable ones, have that kind of money to spend buying back their stock.


2. Few if any benefits

In some circumstances I suppose a company could benefit from a stock buy-back. Large stable companies with sufficient cash could do them, perhaps for tax purposes or to generate favorable publicity. They would be relatively small buy-backs though, I think.

However a penny company with little or no income has no need to worry about a large tax bill. A stock buy-back doesn’t enhance the company’s reputation either since the only people who know much about the company are the few investing in or trading the stock.

Once the buy-back is over, the stock is likely to decline if there’s no support (good financials for example) at the higher PPS. Astute investors understand this and many of them will take their profits. Traders too will be all over the stock like fleas on a dog. They’re in the game solely for a quick score, so when the buy-back is done or nearly so, they’re selling. The PPS is then likely to retrace and over time it may eventually fall all the way to the level before the buy-back.

The company therefore has spent a lot of money and gained nothing from the buy-back except heartfelt gratitude from a lot of ecstatic (former) stockholders.


3. Buy-back announcements increase the buy-back price

Let’s suppose you are the CEO of a penny stock company and you want to do a stock buy-back. Would you (a) announce to the world you will buy-back shares or (b) do it quietly to avoid drawing extra attention to the company?

If you like to throw away cash and enjoy your stockholders' adulation, you will choose (a). If you abhor losing money and understand the concept of supply and demand, you will select (b).

Why?

If you plan to buy-back the stock at .0100 per share for example, the minute you reveal your intentions, the stock will become less available and thusly more expensive.

How does this work? Once stockholders know the company is buying back the stock, they won’t sell their shares so quickly. They understand the PPS will move higher as the float is reduced. They will hold to make a larger profit. Other people will understand too and jump on the bandwagon.

The stock may move to .02, .05 or .10 for example as you do the buy-back. As the price climbs you are paying more and more for the shares. By announcing the stock buy-back you have only increased your cost.


4. A better method of reducing the float exist

It’s called a reverse split.* Reverse splits are inexpensive and can be done quickly compared to stock buy-backs.

Guapo
05-11-2009, 12:40 PM
So why do companies announce stock buy-backs and how do they get away with promises they don’t keep?

Stock buy-backs were (and are) mostly just another gimmick to pump* stocks. That’s IMO of course.

Usually companies never really promise a stock buy-back. Their PR~s will imply a stock buy-back but they don’t specifically state the company will do one. The language will read something like this:

1. “The board of directors has approved a stock buy-back program….”
2. “The company intends to reduce its float by 40%”
3. “The company will buy back all the shares it can at .0010 or less.”


1. The board approved a stock buy-back but that doesn’t necessarily mandate the company to do one. The board may have approved buying a rocket to send the CEO to the moon too, but that doesn’t mean he’s packing his bags.

2. The word “intends” is not a promise. It’s merely the expression of a possible or probable course of action. The company can later claim business conditions have changed and a stock buy-back is no longer in its best interest.

3. The key words here are “can”, “at” and “or less”. Perhaps it can’t be done now because the company has a new deal in the works and no longer has sufficient cash for the buy-back. Maybe the PPS moved to .0011. They didn’t promise to buy any shares at .0011, only at .0010 or less.

Even when the company actually promises a stock buy-back, there’s a back-door exit. The language in the PR will be similar to, “The company will buy-back up to 500,000 shares of our stock.”

Note the phrase “up to”. If the company buys-back 10 shares, they’ve satisfied the requirement. They didn’t promise to purchase a specific number of shares. They only set an upper limit of shares they would buy.

Never will you see a PR promising a stock buy-back like this one,

“We absolutely promise, we ain’t jiving you – cross our hearts and hope to die and our fingers aren’t crossed – we’re gonna buy-back 500,000 shares of our stock. We really are! Honest!”

When a company issues a PR like this one, I just might believe them.

Guapo
05-11-2009, 12:41 PM
The Lighter Side – Don’t Drink The Kool Aid

Do you drink The Kool Aid?

You do? Perhaps you should check the latest definition before you answer so quickly.

According to Word Spy(1) , Drink The Kool Aid means,

To become a firm believer in something; to accept an argument or philosophy wholeheartedly or blindly.

It can also mean someone is forced to Drink The Kool Aid, to go along with a policy or agenda, even if that person perhaps disagrees with it. Here’s an example from Word Spy.

One top executive named McMahon, the treasurer, was known for going around the company after he met with Skilling, Lay, and Fastow, and they directed him to do some bogus deal and say, 'Well, we've all got to go drink the Kool-Aid.’ —William Lerach, quoted in Marie Brenner, "The Enron Wars," Vanity Fair, April, 2002

The Urban Dictionary(2) contains similar definitions,

To completely buy into an idea or system, whether good or bad and Going along with what a crowd desires. Often used when a person changes positions on a topic. “Dave got a haircut and a new suit. Looks like his company is making him drink the kool-aid.”

For the imperative Don’t drink the Kool Aid, the Urban Dictionary(2) defines it as,

Don’t trust any group you find to be a little on the kooky side, or Whatever they tell you, don't believe it too strongly.

Several internet sites, if not most, cite the term came from the 1978 Jonestown mass suicide where the cult leader convinced his followers to drink grape-flavored Kool Aid laced with cyanide(1,2,5).

Word Spy’s earliest known use of the phrase(1) came from a radio conversation about Washington, D.C. Mayor Marion Berry,

You don't follow anyone blindly, my brothers and sisters . . . . We love Marion Barry. He is the mayor . . . . But if Marion Barry disrespects us, we will cry out . . . . We will not blindly drink the Kool-Aid any longer . . . . —Cathy Hughes, transcript from a radio call-in show as reported in Being Stood Up by Mayor Leaves Radio Host Fuming, The Washington Post, July 17, 1987.

The term has been so popularized it’s sometimes used humorously to advertise special events. Linden Labs did so for a network mixer(3). You can even take the Republican Kool Aid test(4), to determine if you follow the Republican party line. I couldn’t find a Democratic Kool Aid test.

Ironically, it may not have been Kool Aid the Jonestown cult members drank but Flavor Aid(5), according to a 1978 Washington Post article citing "… packets of unopened Flavor Aid scattered in the dust in Guyana.” The Kool Aid company however has received the most publicity from the use of the term, as half a billion gallons of real Kool Aid are consumed every year(5).

Drink The Kool Aid is now ingrained in stock market lingo too. We see it used frequently on HSM, generally to describe someone who’s accepted without question the party line of companies and their supporters. A group of people drinking The Kool Aid are sometimes referred to “Kool Aid Kids”. You might also see the term used to describe someone’s past addiction for a certain stock(s), “Oh yeah, he’s A Kool Aid Kid from way back.”

When somebody posts a particularly kool-aidy opinion such as, “The company says they will buy-back 90% of the float(6,7), and I believe them.”, often another HSM~er will reply, “Pass him another glass of Kool Aid”, or “He needs to stop drinking the Kool Aid.”

So in the future if someone inquires, “Are you drinking the Kool Aid?”, perhaps you’d better first ask him what he means.

Good luck to you with your trading, and remember, don’t drink The Kool Aid.